Imagine turning off all your ads and removing your new home listings from the MLS, Zillow, and other third-party websites to prove the value of sales attribution from those sites. You probably wouldn’t, right? That’s because you understand the importance of creating ads and being featured on external websites to generate awareness and capture the interest and intent of potential home buyers.

But how confident are you in pinpointing exactly how many sales came specifically from one of those marketing sources? That’s a bit trickier, isn’t it?

That’s because attribution data isn’t black and white, it’s more like 50 shades of gray data.

Here’s a story to illustrate this point: A while back, a home builder wanted to save money and decided to cut their Meta advertising because their analytics showed zero sales attributed to it. They figured it wasn’t worth the investment. Can you guess what happened next? As expected, their paid social traffic to their website plummeted–but surprisingly, their organic and direct website traffic also took a nosedive. With no awareness ads running, their leads and sales numbers dropped significantly. On the upside, when they turned the Meta ads back on, their organic and direct traffic recovered most of what was lost within the next 30 days.

This experience taught the misguided marketer a hard lesson: attribution data isn’t always straightforward, and it shouldn’t be the sole factor guiding your decisions. They fell into the trap of only valuing channels they believed were directly results-driven, missing the bigger picture of how different marketing efforts work together. As a result, they only analyzed the linear journey of attribution and didn’t understand the importance of seeing the bigger marketing picture. In the end, they learned how shutting down awareness-style ads could impact other sources.

So, was it really the marketer’s fault? Absolutely. They were thinking too black and white, not acknowledging the gray areas of nonlinear data. Even if leadership had pushed for the decision, the marketer should have been able to explain the potential repercussions and advise against such a drastic change to their marketing strategy.

Every marketer starts somewhere, and while this marketer made a costly mistake, it became a valuable learning experience for them and us to learn from. This cautionary tale serves as a reminder to all marketers about the importance of considering the bigger picture and not overvaluing attribution data. With this experience under their belt, they’ll be more cautious in the future when making significant marketing decisions, moving from being a misguided marketer to a savvy one.

Why and How You’re Being Lied To Through Attribution:

First, let's dive into how a Misguided New Home Marketer comes to be. When an eCommerce company creates an Instagram ad for a purse, someone can click the link and buy the purse right away. Boom—the data in Meta shows that specific ad made the sale, and attribution is directly tied to it. Perfect for that purse company.

But houses are a whole different story. You don’t buy a home while lying in bed scrolling through your phone at 2 a.m. A house is a home, an abode, a place to raise your family, mark your kid’s heights on the door frames, a place where comfortable and uncomfortable family dinners happen, and where lifelong memories are created. It’s not an impulse purchase.

Consider this: 50% of Amazon shoppers make a purchasing decision within 15 minutes. In contrast, according to Zillow, the average home-buying process takes about 4 ½ months, not counting the 30-45 days to close. Yet, some home builders still approach their marketing attribution data as if they're selling a purse.

So when any third-party source claims, "That new home sale was because of me and only me because the buyer once clicked my link," take it with a grain of salt. Always be skeptical and analyze their attribution models carefully. Just like baby birds fighting over a worm, all third-party sources want to clamor over each other to be seen as the most valuable by claiming credit for the lead or sale. They all want to be the biggest bird in the nest, vying for the home builder's recognition and limited resources. As a home builder, it's essential to critically assess these claims and understand that the true value may be more complex than what any single source portrays.

Using Doubt To Turn The Misguided Marketer into the Savvy Marketer.

The best marketers aren't pessimists or optimists—they're realists. As a realist, you want things to make sense. So, approach data with a healthy dose of skepticism, and understand that your traffic sources want to convince you of their value because they want more of your budget. Almost every advertising source would love to connect to your CRM and claim they were the first interaction with the buyer. They’ll suggest you spend an extra $500+ with them, hinting, “Think of all the sales you could be losing if you don’t use us!” 

Misguided Marketers get stuck in the weeds, while Savvy Marketers understand that attribution requires a bird's-eye view. Especially for new marketers, it can feel like attribution is the only way to prove their worth to upper management. But over-reliance on attribution is a trap you want to avoid. In part three of this series, Julie Jarnagin will share tips on zooming out to see the bigger picture and what you really need to know.

Remember, not everyone is out to get you. Most companies want to prove their marketing value through their data. However, as a Savvy Marketer, you need to understand that attribution data can be misleading. Being a Savvy Marketer means sometimes you need to play detective when something seems off.

Here's a recent cautionary tale I'll leave you with: A Savvy Marketer reached out to us at Do You Convert because they didn’t trust their lead attribution data from a third-party source—and rightfully so. The company they advertised with suddenly started sending over more leads. On the surface, this looked great, but when the online sales specialist reached out to these new leads, they found that all the leads were confused and didn’t recall signing up. The third-party company had started sending over leads who had checked a box on a confirmation page that said “Get Info” for houses from the builder, even if they were from faraway locations. Despite the questionable quality, they charged the same fee as for higher-quality leads.

So, what's the TLDR? 

Approach your data with a critical eye. Recognize that third-party sources have a vested interest in proving their value, which can lead to misleading attribution claims. As a savvy marketer, you need to dig deeper, question the data, and understand the broader picture.

Becoming a savvy marketer means accepting the gray areas in attribution data and learning to navigate them effectively. The best marketers are realists who approach data with skepticism, always ready to uncover the deeper story behind the numbers. By doing so, you can make more informed decisions and avoid the pitfalls of overvaluing any single marketing source.

Want to Read More? Check out: Attribution is B.S. Part III: Taking a Strategic Approach to Help Us Reach Our Goals by Julie Jarnagin